How to Improve Your Chances of Receiving a Rare Knife Skin in CS:GO

Shekhar Rudra
By Shekhar Rudra
6 Min Read

CS:GO players can access many cases, including knife skins with different designs and quality. In some cases, you can find really rare, valuable items. However, what is the probability of getting a knife skin when opening cases? We will tell you about it right now.

Odds of Receiving a Knife Skin

We can estimate the likelihood of getting a knife skin when opening CS:GO cases through the experience of members of the CS:GO community and some major Youtube bloggers. Let’s evaluate the results of their unpacking.

Case opening statistics

The 24-hour broadcast of Twitch streamer Anomaly is the best baseline for estimating the likelihood of knife skins dropping.

In June 2021, the streamer opened 4,000 cases worth $10,000. Let’s evaluate the chances of getting a knife skin based on Anomaly’s unpacking returns:

  • 12 yellow knives
  • 33 red knives
  • 113 pink knives
  • 624 purple knives.

Probability of obtaining a knife skin

Given the results of unpacking, we can determine the estimated drop probability of skins of different rarity levels:

  • Yellow extremely rare knife skins – 0.26%
  • Red cover skins – 0.64%
  • Pink classified skins – 3.2%
  • Purple restricted skins – 15.98%
  • Blue mil-spec skins – 79.92%

In each case, the chances of getting a skin with a StatTrak counter are 10 times lower. In addition, it is also worth considering the level of wear of the item. All CS:GO skins with a low float value drop less frequently.

Comparison of knife skin odds with other rare skins

The chances of getting a knife skin also depend on the rarity of the case being opened. The higher the rarity of the case, the less likely it is to get a knife skin. Let’s evaluate the probability of getting a skin depending on the rarity of the case: 

  • Base knife odds. The base chance of getting the skin is 0.26%.
  • Knife skins in Covert cases. This case has a 0.4% chance of dropping a knife skin. It is worth noting that not all Covert cases contain knife skins.
  • Knife skins in Classified cases. This case has a 0.15% chance of dropping a knife skin.
  • Knife skins in Restricted cases. There is a 0.05% chance of getting a skin when opening a case with this rarity.
  • Knife skins in Mil-Spec Cases. The chance of getting a knife skin when opening such a case is the smallest – only 0.02%.

Factors That Affect the Odds of Receiving a Knife Skin

CS:GO players can increase their chances of getting a knife skin if they take into account some important factors. For example, the probability of successful unpacking is affected by the type of case, the rarity, and the price of the knife, as well as the number of open cases.

Rarity of knife skins

The higher the rarity of the knife skin, the lower the chance of getting it. The rarest skin in CS:GO is Karambit | Doppler, and the most common – Gut Knife | Safari Mesh.

Price of knife skins

The higher the quality of the skin, the higher its cost. The probability of getting an expensive skin is much lower than the probability of getting a lesser quality and more expensive skin.

Number of cases opened

The chances of getting a valuable knife skin are higher when opening a large number of cases. However, it is important for the player to set a limit on the costs of opening cases.

User account activity

The chance to get a rare knife skin increases with the player’s active participation in various CS:GO events. 

Strategies to Increase the Odds of Receiving a Knife Skin

Trying to get a valuable knife skin can be quite exhausting and costly. Here are some tips that will increase your chances of getting a CS:GO knife skin.

Buying and selling skins

The fastest way to get your desired knife skin is by purchasing the skin from the Steam market. Since the cost of skins can vary depending on their rarity, as well as demand, it is recommended to compare prices on Steam with prices on other sites.

Trading skins with other players

Skin trading is a great way to get rid of unwanted skin and get the item you’re after. However, players should trade on secure platforms as there is a risk of being scammed.

Participating in-game events and promotions

Players can get an exclusive knife skin as a reward by participating in various CS:GO events. For example, you can take part in Operation campaigns and Majors.

Using third-party websites

Buying knife skins on third-party platforms has a number of advantages. As a rule, here you can find skins at a more attractive price, get skins through opening unique cases, and participate in contests.

Wrapping It Up

The demand for knife skins is quite high in the CS:GO community, and the process of getting them can be complicated. The chances of getting a knife in CS:GO cases vary depending on the rarity of the case and the cost of the knife.

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Shekhar Rudra likes mobile gaming. He loves to play different types of mobile games. He is currently maintaining the mobile game content on GameRiv.