With over a thousand skins released so far, here we’ll be taking a look at the rarest skins in CS:GO in 2021.
In CS:GO, skins are added to the game in collections. These collections are introduced in cases or drops. So far, there have been 36 cases released in the game with the earliest CS:GO Weapon Case released in 2013. Also, all three esports cases released from 2013-2014 have been discontinued.
Aside from cases, skin collections can also be obtainable in the form of drops. It can be either just playing the game, or watching CS:GO majors (Souvenir drops), or playing Operation missions (Equivalent of a battle pass). However, now the Souvenir drops follow an Event coin system.
Table of contents
Read More: The Most Expensive CS:GO Skins in 2021
What makes a CS:GO skin rare?
CS:GO skin rarity is affected by a multitude of factors depending on what case it’s from — is the case discontinued or not, is it from an operation pass, and whether it is ongoing or not. Also, the skins that were available via drops from watching majors are very rare now as the drop system has gone through changes over the years. Now we will discuss some characteristics of skins that can decide how rare a skin is.
Skin Wear or Float Number
Skins in the game are assigned float numbers that determine their wear or condition. From 0.0 to 1.0, the higher the number, the worse the condition, and the lower the number the better the condition. Most skins get more scratched up with higher wear values. However, there are some “brightness skins” where only the brightness of the skin texture gets affected with wear making them playable even at higher floats.
Floats 0.000-0.07 are Factory New (FN) skins. These look the best, brightest, have no scratches, and cost the most. From 0.07-0.15 are the Minimal Wear (MW) skins. These look almost the same as FN skins but are more affordable. Field-Tested (FT) skins come in floats 0.15-0.37. These are usually the best value for money and still, look very playable.
Well-Worn (WW) skins range from floats 0.37 to 0.44 and are the range where most skins start to look quite bad. Apart from brightness skins, it is not advised to purchase these tiers of skins. Battle-Scarred (BS) skins range from .44-1.0 and they are the worst quality skin can be. The name’s abbreviation does it justice and it is not advised to go after this tier of skins. An exception to these is the BS >0.96 float AWP | Asiimov known as the Blackiimov(Full black scope) which surprisingly costs more than an FN version.
When a case is opened there is a drop rate of the item depending on the skin tier or quality. The higher a tier is the rarer it is to obtain. Here are the drop rates of a skin (chance to get a skin of that quality)
- Mil-Spec (Blue) – 79.92%
- Restricted (Purple) – 15.98%
- Classified (Pink) – 3.19%
- Covert (Red) – 0.63%
- Special Items/Knives (Gold) – 0.25%
CSGO has a Stattrack variant of almost all skins that keeps a lifetime count of how many kills are obtained through that skin. The chances of getting a Stattrack variant from a single skin is 10% bringing the drop rates of qualities in StatTrack variant to:
- Mil-Spec (Blue) – 7.99%
- Restricted (Purple) – 1.59%
- Classified (Pink) – 0.31%
- Covert (Red) – 0.06%
- Special Items/Knives (Gold) – 0.025%
This means the chance to get any Mil-Spec (Blue) tier skin from a case is almost 80% but to get a Stattrack Melee the chances are 0.025% or 1 in 4000.
Here is where it gets really complicated. In the most low-mid tier of items, it is not that much of a concern but the pattern in high tier items can influence the value to be a few times their normal cost just because of the pattern. Also, normal skin can be worth immense value just because of the pattern. Blue Gems in Case Hardened skins, Pearls in Doppler skins, Good Webbing in Crimson Web skins, perfect fades, etc are some of the rarest patterns.
Stickers are another add-on for skins that affects the rarity and price of a skin. Stickers like Katowice 2014 ones are absurdly rare and a skin’s rarity is determined by what sticker it has along with the position of the sticker too. For example, a Souvenir Dragon Lore with a KennyS gold foil on the scope is worth several times as much as the same skin with random stickers.
Rarest Skins in CS:GO 2021
Here we are listing the rarest skins in CS:GO in 2021. For the first part, we did not take into account stickers or patterns here and those make the ranking and rarity even more complex and expensive. But we did include some common specialties at the end so read on till then. If you’re interested in more unique patterns and expensive skins you can check out the most expensive CS:GO skins 2021.
We used the extensive database of csgofloat and all records were as of the date of publishing of this article.
G3SG1 | Chronos WW
It might not look the part but the G3SG1 | Chronos WW is very rare skin. It is from the Gods and Monsters collection and is only available to get as operation drops. The Well Worn float range of this skin is limited from 0.38 to 0.4 making it so rare that only 61 exist in the world.
Negev | Anodized Navy MW
At first sight, the Negev | Anodized Navy doesn’t seem like a very rare skin. It’d bland appearance might have you wondering why is this even on the list. Well, this skin is actually one of the inputs for the Glock | Fade. Both of them are from the Assault collection which is a very rare drop. So many of these Negevs were burned in pursuit of the Fade that there are only 52 registered ones left to date.
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam FN
The SCAR-20 | Splash Jam is a part of the Militia Collection, of the first skin collections released in CS:GO. The reason this skin is so rare is that the float values to get this in Factory new are from 0.6-0.7. Also, the only way now to get this skin is to trade up using an M4A4 | Modern Hunter which is valued at close to $170, and the chance to get the Splash Jam is only 10%. This is why there are only 51 of these registered in the database.
Stattrack Ak-47 | Red Laminate FN
The Stattrack Ak-47 | Red Laminate FN is one of the rarest and most desirable AK skins in the game. The skins are from the eSports 2013 case and after those have been discontinued, it is impossible to get this skin without trade-ups. There are only 45 that exist and a lot of popular figures in the community like McSkillet tried for years to get this skin via trade-ups and failed.
Stattrack USP-S | Orion BS
After the Howl fiasco, the USP-S | Orion was another skin that was removed from the Huntsman case but it still was in the Huntsman case meaning was still possible to trade up for it. The floating range for the Battle Scarred version of the skin was only 0.45-0.50 making it extremely hard to get. Add to that the Stattrack version and there are only 44 ST USP-S | Orion BS in the game.
Stattrack M4A4 | Howl WW
The M4A4 | Howl is perhaps the most controversial skin CS:GO. The skin was first released in the Huntsman case and later the skin Artwork was proven to be stolen. As a result, Valve made it Contraband and it is the only skin of such tier to ever exist in the game.
This skin was removed from the case as well as the collection meaning not only it was impossible to be unboxed but also it was impossible to be traded up to. So the skins unboxed from the release of the case to the time it got the contraband are the ones that are still in circulation to this day. The Well-Worn M4A4 | Howl has an extremely limited float range from 0.38-0.4 making the Stattrack variant one of the rarest skins in the world. Only 13 known skins exist to this date.
As an example of all the things discussed at the beginning, here is a Stattrack Butterfly Knife | Dopplet MW which is a Black Pearl. The odds of this skin getting unboxed is less than 1 in 100 Million and according to csgofloat it is the only one that exists in the world owned by HenTaiChenCS.
Here is a breakdown of the odds to get exactly this specific variant (Credit to TDM_Heyzeus)
This skin is so rare is because of the sheer odds one has to have to unbox a skin of this wear and pattern and in stattrack. This is by far one of the rarest skins in the world and only 1 of such exists to this date.
These are known as the Rare gems and you can get three variants of the Dopplers: Sapphire, Ruby, and the Black pearl. Valve added the Gamma collection and added the Gamma Doppler knives and it has a Gem of its own named the Emerald.
Bonus: Blue Gems
The blue gems are from the Case Hardened collection of skins. These skins have varying patterns and if you get a pattern with a solid amount of blue, it’s time to call your local dealership because you can get a car for how much the skin is worth. Below you can see that the Ak-47 case hardened with pattern #661 known in the community as the Scar pattern.
Also, the eSports CS:GO legend Hiko owned a StatTrack Karambit Blue gem with the best amount of blue unboxed in the history of the game, having a solid blue playside as well as 90% of the opposite side in blue. These are one of, if not the rarest skins in CS:GO.