LNG is currently 3rd in the LPL Summer Split and is locked in the Playoffs. Hence, we speculate whether they are a top 3 team in this article.
LNG had an excellent start to the split beating the likes of FPX, RNG, BLG, etc. However, the Week 4 loss to RA kind of shook them which led to more losses and roster changes. With yesterday’s win against RW, they secured a playoffs spot. Let’s speculate whether LNG will end up in one of the top 4 spots when the split ends.
LNG’s Journey In The LPL So Far
As mentioned earlier, LNG had the best start to the split they could have had. At that point, Ale looked like the missing piece for the team. Also, Iwandy was playing out of his mind and Light was playing really well. With all gears clicking, LNG looked like a top 3 team in the LPL.
Then Week 4 hit and they lost to RA in a 2-0 fashion. From that point onwards, LNG did not look the same anymore. Their level of play dropped, Ale had his inconsistent games, icon did not look as good, Light and Iwandy dropped off, etc. The patch change may have had something to do with it but that is not an excuse they should lean. They simply did not play up to the level they showed at the start of the split.
After their stint of losing games to WE, SN, RA, etc, they decided to make a bot duo change which backfired. Light and Iwandy come back in and they win against LGD and RW to secure a playoff spot.
Is LNG A Top 4 Team?
As of their recent performances, they cannot be a top 4 team in the LPL despite their record. They had a phenomenal start but the last time they won a 2-0 series against anyone was IG who had no TheShy. Even against RW and LGD, they lost a game before winning the series. Oftentimes, it just looks terrible and their drafts have been very questionable as well.
Heck, they even lost to UP in the bad stretch they went through. The problems they have faced stemmed from a lot of reasons. For one, Ale’s play became very inconsistent. In the LPL, it is hard to win games without a consistent top laner. Also, the team as a whole had a bad read of the meta. That is not an excuse but it is rather a fact their drafts have shown so far as of late. They have given away power picks to other teams and other teams have capitalized on it.
For the opponent of LNG, the key for them to win is to pressure either the top or mid lane and get some advantage out of it. LNG is not a team that has looked solid when they are behind and LNG’s decision-making can sometimes be strange. Long story short, we do not believe LNG is a top 4 team in the LPL.
Will LNG Keep Their Top 4 Spot?
In the LPL, a top 4 spot in the regular split means you get into the double-elimination bracket. That is a huge boost for any team making it there. So far, we can say with some certainty that EDG and FPX have secured that. The other two spots are up for grabs as LNG only has 2 games left on their schedule and some teams have more games to play.
Starting with LNG first, LNG has two series left against TES and EDG, which are both going to be really hard games to win. LNG might lose their next two series given their current form and their opponents needing a win due to their tough stretch.
Looking at other teams, there are many of them that could unseat LNG from the spot. Assuming they finish the split with 10 wins, there would be many teams vying for those remaining 2 top 4 spots. Out of those teams, the ones with the highest chances would be either RNG, RA, or WE. RA has 3 games left but those 3 games are against teams that would want wins desperately. However, one win would get them the spot given LNG remains at 10 wins.
RNG and WE would be the two teams with the higher moving rate given they have 4 games left for each team. WE would have the highest chance given they have one win more than RNG atm. However, RNG and WE play each other and that could have an effect on their standings.
Thus, if LNG stays at 10 wins, there would be a lot of competition for the spot they are holding and it is likely they lose it given the form of other teams coming in. However, if LNG manages to win a series against either TES or EDG, that would secure a top 4 spot for them.
LNG looks like an average team given their current run of form. Nevertheless, their start of the split gave them the leeway to struggle but still have a top 4 spot at the moment. If they manage to win one more series, they will secure a top 4 spot. However, do not get it mixed up, just because they have a top 4 playoff seeding does not make them a top 4 team in strength. There are teams that have looked better for the past weeks than LNG and they could have an early exit in the playoffs if they end up at a higher playoff seeding.